Tort Cost Outlook · Updated September 2026

U.S. tort costs are on track to hit $1 trillion by 2031.

The last official count put America's tort system at $529 billion in 2022. Every major input behind that number has kept climbing since. By our estimate, costs reached about $655 billion in 2025, and you're paying for it.

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$529B2022 · OfficialLatest figure from the U.S. Chamber Institute for Legal Reform
~$655B2025 · Our estimateUsing updated insurance and verdict data
2031$1 trillion a yearProjected crossing year (range: 2031–2033)
$0$250B$500B$750B$1T$1.25T2016201920222025202820312033$1 trillion$529B~$655B2031Official (ILR)Our estimateProjection (7.2%/yr)Low–high range

Total U.S. tort costs, billions of dollars. 2016–2022 from ILR's Tort Costs in America (3rd ed., 2024). 2023 onward are our estimates.

The evidence

The data since 2022 points up

ILR's estimate is built from liability insurance premiums, the self-insured share of business risk, and claims data. We tracked the same inputs forward. Every one has grown since the last official count.

InputShare of 2022 totalSince 2022
Personal auto liability premiumsAM Best30% ($157B)+13% in 2023, +12.7% in 2024
$182.4B in 2024
Commercial liability premiumsS&P Global Market Intelligence58% ($309B)+5.4% in 2024 ($162.7B)
General liability about +11%, 1H 2025
Commercial auto liability premiumsMilliman; AM Best11% ($58B)+7.3% in 2023, +12.8% in 2024
About +11%, 1H 2025
Nuclear verdicts ($10M+) against companiesMarathon StrategiesLeading signal89 → 135 → ~190
2023 → 2024 → 2025
Personal auto liability lossesNAICLeading signal+18.8% in 1H 2025
Liability reserve additionsSwiss Re; AM BestLeading signal$16B in 2024
+$2B commercial auto, 2025
The projection

When costs reach $1 trillion

We applied the updated growth rates to each category of ILR's 2022 figure: about $569B in 2023, $617B in 2024 and $655B in 2025. Then we projected forward at three paces.

Low · 6.1% a year2033

Commercial liability growth slows to 3% a year.

Central · 7.2% a year2031

The long-run pace since 2016 holds.

High · 8.0% a year2031

The 2022–2024 pace continues.

Reform works

The trend isn't fixed. States that act bend the curve.

West Virginia's tort costs fell more than 20% from 2016 to 2022 after sustained reform, and it now has the lowest cost per household in the country. After Florida's 2023 reforms, insurance litigation filings there dropped 23% in a single year.

See the reforms we support
About this estimate

The 2023–2025 figures and the $1 trillion projection are our own estimates, not figures published by ILR or the Brattle Group. We scaled each category of ILR's 2022 figure by public premium growth. About 31% of ILR's total is self-insured business risk from a proprietary model, which we could not update directly. 2025 relies partly on first-half data, and premium growth also reflects ordinary inflation in repair and medical costs.

Sources
  1. ILR, Tort Costs in America, 3rd ed. (Nov. 2024)
  2. AM Best, private passenger auto liability, 2024
  3. AM Best, commercial auto liability, 2024
  4. S&P Global Market Intelligence, 2024 direct premiums
  5. Carrier Management, first-half 2025 premiums
  6. Milliman, commercial auto liability results, 2023
  7. NAIC, 2025 mid-year P&C report
  8. Marathon Strategies via Claims Journal, nuclear verdicts in 2025
  9. Marathon Strategies via Risk & Insurance, nuclear verdicts in 2024
  10. Swiss Re Institute, social inflation (sigma 4/2024)
  11. Swiss Re Institute, U.S. P&C outlook (April 2025)
  12. AM Best via Reinsurance News, 2025 reserve development
  13. IA Magazine, Florida reform results